Jared Bernstein has a thoughtful response to today?s column; oh, and by the way, people should be reading his blog.
As he says, the Obama administration faced severe political constraints even before it lost the House. WPA-type programs probably couldn?t have passed even in February 2009; mortgage relief, while it might have been doable (and still might be), would cause howls of complaint that the undeserving are being rewarded; and, of course, any talk of useful inflation gets the Zimbabwe treatment.
What I would say in reply is, first of all, this wasn?t an ?Obama must ?? column; it was aimed more at the broader discourse, as well as the closed-door-off-the-record stuff I?ve been hearing from men in suits. Really bad analysis is posing as wisdom, and it needs to be called out.
But on the Obama issue, I still think that the administration has made four serious misjudgments.
First, I think that it has paid too much attention to the short-run political risks of taking unpopular positions versus the medium-run political risks of having a lousy economy. Yes, a real mortgage-mod program would have fed Tea Party sentiment ? but it might have meant a stronger economy in the second half of 2010, and that would have mattered a lot more. As best as I can tell, the political types in the White House have, year after year, operated on the principle that the economy is on the mend, so it?s time to pivot to centrist-sounding themes ? only to keep finding that no, the economy isn?t on the mend, and they?re paying for that at the polls.
Second, the administration made what I continue to believe was the awful decision to pretend that the half-measures it was actually able to get were exactly right, not a penny too small. Would it have made a difference in 2010 if Obama had been able to say to the country, ?I asked for more aid to the economy, but those guys blocked it, and that?s why we?re not recovering faster?? I don?t know ? but it could hardly have been worse than the position he actually found himself in, which was trying to explain why a policy he insisted had been perfect wasn?t doing the job.
Third, it?s one thing to recognize that there?s only so much you can do; it?s another to adopt the arguments of your enemies. Since some time in the fall of 2009, Obama?s rhetorical stance has been basically that he?s like the GOP, but less so; can you even remember him offering a full-throated defense of Keynesian policies?
Finally, while the White House doesn?t set Fed policy, it does get to appoint Fed governors. Why are there all those vacant seats? Why weren?t there recess appointments?
Again, though, today?s column wasn?t about advice to the White House. It was about the longer game, making the case that we are suffering a gratuitous economic nightmare that could be cured if we would only try.
Source: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/30/shoulda-coulda-woulda/
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